The Republican and Democratic Party Presidential primary races on March 5, 2016 ended up being a lot more surprising than anyone anticipated. The news channels may end up being irked that the primaries were held on a Saturday instead of a weekday. Had the primaries occurred on a Tuesday, rating on network and cable TV would have been huge. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were expected to win all the states up for grabs. This did not happen. Two Senators in the primaries, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders, were able to score two big wins in two states.
Ted Cruz won the caucuses in Kansas and Maine. Kansas was a blowout win, and this was stunning since Trump was the heavy favorite. An expert in this field and big supporter of AWI named Sam Tabar, now with Schulte Roth and Full Cycle Fund, points out that Maine was a totally unexpected victory, and it was also a state Trump was projected to win. Bernie Sanders was able to win both Kansas and Nebraska, two states most assumed would go for Clinton. Both Trump and Clinton won the state of Louisiana, a state both were expected to win. Trump also won in the state of Kentucky.
Over the next few days, analysts will look at the wins and the losses and speculate on why things turned out the way they did. Likely, superior ground games and get out the vote effors played a large part in Cruz and Sanders doing better than expected.
Without a doubt, Senator Marco Rubio’s campaign is in a lot of trouble. No wins in any state.